The Equation of Webcomic Success
I am in no way a big fan of math (probably my worst subject in high-school) however I do find math to be interesting in how important it is to nearly everything in life. While this is every bit of tongue-in-cheek I can muster, it doesn’t mean this can’t be a fun experiment. Thus, I am trying to devise a mathematical formula for the potential success of a webcomic. Needless to say, some of the numbers you could plug into the equation are based on personal feelings and will be highly subjective and don’t reflect any actual, inherent, value.
So, what is the equation thus far?
[(Q1 + Q2)]NV=PS
- Q1= Quality of a webcomic.
- Q2= Quantity of a webcomic.
- NV= Niche Value of a webcomic.
- PS= Potential Success of a webcomic.
As I already stated, the numbers you can assign are purely subjective.
Quality is measured in a scale of 1-10. This factors in art and writing. The ratio of art’s value to writing’s value is likely a 6-4. Art being the main draw of a comic factors into a majority of the comic’s Quality and appeal.
Quantity is once again measured on a scale of 1-10. There are two factors that the scale is divided between. Update Frequency and Archive Size. The ratio is likely 7 to 3. A comic doesn’t need a large archive to suddenly achieve a certain level of notoriety (see Octopus Pie or Dresden Codak), but frequency of updates provide more of a key number. More updates means readers will likely come back much more often. This however still need to be looked at in greater depth as it doesn’t account for Dresden Codak’s popularity concerning it’s small archive, sporadic updates and more limited Niche Value.
Niche Value is a very interesting number and is likely the most difficult number to assign overall. Niche value refers to the potential fanbase based on the primary subjects the comic tackles, and how likely said subject would be to read the comic. This is rated on a scale of 1-5.
This is likely very odd at first, so I will do a few examples to show you how the equation plays out and could reflect a comic’s popularity.
To start, we will set out benchmark. Penny-Arcade is arguably the most successful webcomic ever. Let’s use it.
Penny-Arcade: [(8+10)]5=90
Penny-Arcade scored a 90 out of the potential 100 points the formula dictates thus far. Let’s analyze my reasoning for the numbers I gave it.
For quality, I gave Penny-Arcade an 8. 5 for art, 3 for writing. My reasoning? Penny-Arcade’s visuals tend to be rather formulaic and there is often a lot of copy-paste involved. For every strip where Gabe draws some very dynamic art, we have several strips relying on two guys standing around. Generally, the majority of the comics have the same distance and angle. Gabe is not a bad artist, but the comic relies too much on formula and repeating the same tricks. Considering that the maximum amount of art’s impact is 6 out of 10, a 5 is not a bad score, but like any artist, there’s always room for improvement. As for the writing, as a gamer comic, there is a lot of hit or miss. When Tycho takes on more generalized pop-culture, there is a lot of fun to be had, but when specifics show up, the joke is lost. Generally, some of the best PAs have very little to do with specific games.
For Quantity, this should be obvious. Penny-Arcade is the webcomic ideal. Long-running and consistent. Anything less than an 10 for them in quantity is just silly.
Niche Value is the more complicated variable. Penny-Arcade received a 5 on the grounds of it being a gamer comic. Gamers exist in large numbers, and they are quite Internet-savvy, so it would be likely they would gravitate to a webcomic with it’s core elements grounded firmly in their gardens.
Hopefully that cleared this up a bit. Let me do a couple of other webcomics.
Ctrl-Alt-Delete: [(2+8)]5=50
Shortpacked [(6+9)]3=45
Butterfly [(8+5)]2=26
Niche Value has the most obvious effect on the popularity of a comic. Even a comic with low quality such as Ctrl-Alt-Delete scores higher due to it’s niche-factor. Now, it won’t be as popular as Penny-Arcade, but for what it’s worth, it scored higher than a superior comic (Butterfly) by over 20 points.
The formula is still very rough, but I see a lot of fun involved with fleshing it out. I already have a few more factors I wish to add to it. These would include the “Weeaboo”, “Arrogance” and “Hipster” variables.
So, what about you guys? Why don’t you try seeing how your comics fit in, are there any problems that need to be addressed? Do you have any suggestions for polishing the equation? Please let me know and I’ll update the formula accordingly.
April 14th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
*braces for potential drama*
April 14th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Good chart but your comics are better than the ones you menion :3
April 14th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Butterfly’s popularity seems to stem mostly from people who don’t actually read webcomics. Dean Trippe is all over the superhero scene at conventions, online and the like. And since his take on superhero comedy is the opposite of most of the ones online, ie:EXTREME ACTION WITH HUGE MUSCLES. It’s got a very low niche value, like you said, despite how awesome a series it is.
I’m also tired of, and a fan of Shortpacked! Walky can write, he really can. But it seems like it should have ended a long time ago. Even for a webcomic he revisits old staples in the EXACT same way, over and over. One of the most annoying being the “Drama tag” Every time it’s ripped we have Robin go to bigger extremes to stop the drama, and halt the further delving into everyone’s sordid pasts. It’s an old joke and it’s just dull now. It’s the way all of his storyline jokes work so it just seems like a sitcom that goes on for 18 seasons until it has no more meaning.
Also I personally believe it completely jumped the shark when UltraCar was introduced. Granted he is largely a satire on shark jumping characters, but that just makes him much, much lamer.
April 14th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
I’ll give Cosmic Dash a try.
[(5+2)]1=7
Cosmic Dash would be a 7, though I am sure I am being utterly generous.
April 15th, 2008 at 8:22 am
Well, I think HIGH MOON easily scores 100 in PS.
I think all webcomic do.
If PS= Potential Success of a webcomic, well I think a lot of comics have 100% potential.
Potential is a bit of a loaded word, what might currently seem like a medicore webcomic, could in a years’ time become a HUGE success.
April 15th, 2008 at 9:28 am
I disagree, some comics just won’t be as successful as others, and some will lose out on a lot of attention mostly because they don’t play to a certian niche value. The emphasis on this equation idea is to show how much playing to certain groups effects a comic’s popularity.
If I were to do High Moon I’d get [(8+6)]2=28.
It doesn’t mean you have a bad webcomic, but instead, your niche value is pretty low. Most people who like westerns probably wouldn’t seek out a western webcomic, and the horror elements may put them off. Your highest potential niche value comes from direct horror fans, but horror comics are so rare on the internet they may not stumble upon High Moon.
Of course, this is all in good fun anyway. It’s interesting to see how the numbers work.
April 15th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Your highest potential niche value comes from direct horror fans, but horror comics are so rare on the internet they may not stumble upon High Moon.
See, I think that’s all subjective. Heck, from my experience, I think there are more horror fans on the internet than there are comic fans. And there are certainly more Westerns and Horror movies out in theatres than there are superhero movies. And certainly more Hot Topics and Goth / Horror stores than there are comic stores.
I disagree, some comics just won’t be as successful as others, and some will lose out on a lot of attention mostly because they don’t play to a certian niche value.
Again, I think there are several factors that are taken out of consideration with an equation like this. As I said earlier, this doesn’t take into account that a creator might totally change art styles or their approach to the webcomic. Take GIRLS WITH SLINGSHOTS for example, that strip went from fine-line rendering to more symplistic art style in the course of a year - did that increace or decrease it’s potential? How much does a ‘comic viewer’ affect the equation?
I mean, I like the ‘idea’ of a webcomic equation, but I think there are several factors that are missing … the most crucial is that ‘a good story is a good story’ regardless of genre or niche.
April 15th, 2008 at 11:04 am
This is totally brilliant and probably accurate! But if the formula falls into the wrong hands, it could be used for evil as well as for good. D:
April 15th, 2008 at 11:21 am
Hmmm … think got me thinking about xkcd, which is a widely popular strip, but has stick figures for art. I also believe it is currently surpassing Penny Arcade
Now xkcd describes itself as follows:
“A webcomic of romance, sarcasm, math, and language.”
Now, I’m not sure how many people can relate to all four of those elements. I’m certainly no math nerd, that’s for sure. So, what’s the niche value there?
Also, since xkcd is a stick figure comic, what’s the quality there?
April 15th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Dave: That’s part of the reason why I invited people to assist in polishing the formula.
I admit there are exceptions, so how do we make sure those exceptions are counted for?
As for XKCD, I’d give it’s Niche a 4 value. Why? It’s all all around slashdot/digg/nerd-chic comic. It’s dealing with a variety of subjects that highly computer literate people flock to. These are the types of people who will seek out nerdy jokes like this. Niche value is quite complicated, which is it’s biggest problem. Besides, two of XKCD’s biggest exports are math and sarcasm, mathematicians are known to have rather strange senses of humor.Most of XKCD’s quality is in it’s writing.
Dean: I’m glad you enjoyed this. I love your comic!
April 17th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Whoa. This is way over my head but fascinating nonetheless. Would love to see a follow-up to this post wherein you take on a few more comics .
April 22nd, 2008 at 1:19 am
well you left out the part where the webcomic earns money.
April 22nd, 2008 at 10:22 am
Webcomics and money don’t quite seem very tangibly correlated to me. The webcomic doesn’t really earn money, but products like shirts and such do.
Provided you can fill your comic with snappy one-liners for t-shirts, you’d be set for merchandising.
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